Lowetide: Can Oilers Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?

In every season since he arrived with the Edmonton Oilers in 2015-16, Darnell Nurse has over-delivered value in comparison to his salary.

That is about to change, as reflected by Nurse’s inclusion in the recent Dom Luszczyszyn article about the NHL’s 10 worst contracts at The Athletic.

This fall, Nurse begins an eight-year deal that holds a cap hit of $9.25 million. That contract, signed in August 2021, will be difficult if not impossible to outperform.

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That doesn’t mean Nurse will be less productive, or less valuable than one year ago, but it does mean there will be more criticism whatever may come.

As the summer rolls along, it’s worth examining the criticisms to see what holds merit and what is noise.

He’s playing too high on the depth chart!

This complaint has been around for some time. In the early years, Nurse was deployed on the third pair, moved up only due to injuries elsewhere on the roster. He graduated to the second pair by 2017-18 and has been top pair or close since Oscar Klefbom’s career began to fade due to injury.

Puck IQ gives us a clean view of Nurse’s progress up the depth chart, using five-on-five ice time versus elites:

Nurse has been top pair for most of the past five seasons, and the de facto top left option since Klefbom’s injuries began taking him out of the lineup. Those five seasons included several head coaches and each one looked to Nurse as the primary solution.

The complaint that Nurse is playing too high on the depth chart falls away when viewing evidence. If new coach Jay Woodcroft had an equal option, he would have deployed a plan incorporating the other option.

In actual fact, Woodcroft, along with new defence coach Dave Manson, materially increased his playing time versus elites.

Superhuman top pairing 

In 2021-22, former coach Dave Tippett used Nurse an average of seven minutes per game against elites; Woodcroft pushed it to just over nine minutes. It made a massive difference and contributed to the team’s success.

Puck IQ drives home the impact of the Woodcroft-Manson gambit like a sledgehammer. The increase in ice time was about two minutes per game, turning Nurse and Cody Ceci into a superhuman top pairing. The goal differential improved with the new deployment (numbers versus elite competition):

The tweak to a super top pair allowed the second and third pairings to play against the soft parade and resulted in outscoring up and down the line.

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The team’s improvement defensively was spectacular: At five-on-five in the second half, Edmonton’s goals share was 93-73 (56 percent goal share). That compares to 88-100 (47 percent goal share) goal differential under Tippett.

The Oilers have made few changes on defence during the offseason, so the heavy lifting is likely to return again next season.

He’s ineffective without McDavid

This is a criticism that can be levelled at every Oilers player, but how big is the gap between Nurse and Edmonton’s other defencemen? At five-on-five, Nurse’s performance looks good compared to other regular defencemen. A look at expected goals reveals the situation with clarity, sorted by expected goals without Connor McDavid (via Natural Stat Trick, at five-on-five and against all competition):

McDavid floats all boats as is indicated here, but it is Nurse who delivers over 50 percent expected goals while playing with teammates other than the captain. That’s a quality stat for the much-maligned defender.

Nurse was 25-22 (53.2 percent) on-ice goals five on five with McDavid, 34-38 (47.2 percent) away from the No. 1 line. Those numbers are a reflection of finishing skills (the captain needs less to do much more) and luck, but the overall thrust of Nurse’s season was success in all areas.

That runs counter to the claim.

He isn’t a shutdown defenceman

This is a difficult argument because the answer may depend entirely on what metrics you value. We’ve established that Nurse has been a top pairing defenceman versus elite competition for five seasons. That’s one requirement of a shutdown defender (deployment by the coach in tough situations).

Since those tough minutes tend to lead to increased shots- and goals-against, it’s difficult to look up overall numbers and conclude they are completely accurate. The best way is to use Puck IQ to reflect performance in the most difficult game state (versus elites). Here are the Nurse numbers (and ranking among Oilers defencemen) through the years at five-on-five.

Nurse had his best NHL season in this area last year, posting impressive goals-against per 60 totals against elites (Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalance was 1.5 goals-against per 60 versus elites) while playing Herculean minutes.

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His 2020-21 numbers were less impressive, possibly due to some chaos from his partner (Tyson Barrie) and lack of depth among the forwards.

It’s safe to say that Nurse, while not representing the typical definition of a shutdown defender, improved markedly when the quality of the overall team took a step forward. Ceci’s emergence as a reliable partner also aided the cause.

He shouldn’t be on the power play

Nurse is something of an enigma as an offensive player. Visually, he displays several things we associate with success: Dynamic skating ability, an impressive shot from the point, ability to transport the puck effectively.

His even-strength scoring is among the best in the league. Among qualifying defencemen over the past three seasons combined, Nurse ranks No. 22 in the NHL in goals per 60 at five-on-five (0.34) and No. 34 in points per 60 (1.05) in the discipline.

Nurse ranks No. 34 in points per 60 on the power play (4.58) but is less dynamic than Barrie or Evan Bouchard with the man advantage. If Nurse gets fatigued during the season, or young Philip Broberg finds chemistry, we could see a reduction of ice time for Nurse in this area.

The contract is too much

In each season since he was a rookie, Nurse brought more value to his team than the money paid to him. His new contract, as mentioned, makes it likely impossible to deliver enough value over a long deal that stretches out most of a decade.

The contract is Everest, but could have been avoided if management had decided to bite the bullet.

If the Oilers had signed Nurse to an eight-year deal four years ago, fully half of the purchased years would have been restricted seasons.

What would that mean? It means the eight-year deal, signed in September 2018, would be $6.825 million per season. The contract Nurse is about to enter has an AAV of $9,250,000.

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That’s a difference of $2.45 million per season, or just a little shy of Brett Kulak’s contract with the Oilers. That’s a useful player.

Fans tend to blame the player for being greedy, but Nurse signed for what the market dictated. If Edmonton’s management had signed the 2018 deal that included RFA seasons, the contract would not be an albatross.

Nurse is a productive player and likely to remain on the top pairing for the duration of McDavid’s contract. An overpay for someone who can successfully fill the No. 1 role on the top defensive pair is something less than a fatal roster flaw.

Bottom line

Nurse the player is a target for many reasons, and the new contract will turn the heat up immeasurably.

Among the things mentioned as negative about him, the power play and the contract are the most difficult to overcome.

He plays so much in other areas, backing off the power-play time would be a reasonable course of action if Nurse tires during the season. He does deliver solid numbers in the discipline, but his defensive value at even strength and the penalty kill are more valuable than his presence on an already elite power play.

The contract is going to get some getting used to, with increased cap ceilings and a Stanley Cup the only real relief from criticism. One is likely, the other increasingly possible.

In other areas, there’s significant proof in support of Nurse. He is a worthy No. 1 defenceman for the Oilers, he performs well with and without McDavid, his results last season are in line with a successful shutdown defender.

Nurse remains a foundation piece for the Oilers. He is too valuable to move.

There may come a time when Nurse is passed by another left defenceman on the depth chart. That day will not come soon, as there is no one on the roster, or on the horizon, who could be expected to successfully replace him.

(Photo: Sergei Belski / USA Today)

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